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As discussed in an earlier blog, herd immunity occurs when enough people become immune to an infectious disease, either through infection or a vaccine. A virus will die out once uninfected individuals are rarely in contact with those that are contagious. But achieving herd immunity by natural transmission and without a vaccine is gained at the cost of many lives.
In August, the World Health Organization’s Michael Ryan warned journalists, “We are nowhere close to the levels of immunity required to stop this disease transmitting. We need to focus on what we can actually do now to suppress transmission and not live in hope of herd immunity being our salvation.”
Experts believe that 60-70% of Americans will need to become immune before our country reaches herd immunity. But, according to Dr. Dale Bratzler, OU Medicine enterprise chief quality officer, “Getting to herd immunity through infection is not the direction Oklahoma wants to go right now.” To get there, nearly 2.4 million Oklahomans would have to contract COVID-19. Using the lowest available estimate of case fatality rate of 0.3%, this would mean more than 7,000 Oklahomans (more than ten times the current total) would die, while using the state’s current 1.27% death rate means that more than 30,000 people would die.
It is believed that, even in the absence of a vaccine, the Brazilian city of Manaus has reached herd immunity. As of August, researchers estimated that 66% of the population had been infected. In that city of over 2 million people, 4,000 people have died so far, a high death toll for a city where only 6% of the population is over 60. This experience reveals “that an unmitigated outbreak will lead to very significant levels of illness and mortality,” says Bill Hanage, an epidemiologist at Harvard University, “which is what we’ve been saying since February.”
So, the consensus opinion of experts, with which I also concur, is that we do need to achieve herd immunity against COVID-19 through a combination of natural immunity due to infection AND an aggressive vaccine program. And, while awaiting the arrival of COVID-19 vaccines, we all need to continue to wear masks, wash our hands, avoid touching our faces and maintain social distancing when appropriate. Frequent testing and contact tracing are also needed for those who have been exposed to COVID-19. If we do these things we will save thousands if not millions of lives.
For more information check these links
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-67362031924-3/fulltext
https://www.inquirer.com/health/coronavirus/covid-coronavirus-herd-immunity-vaccine-20200924.html