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As the Coronavirus pandemic has progressed, new terms, such as antibody, PPE (personal protective equipment) and flattening the curve have become familiar.
Another newly familiar term is herd immunity, a form of indirect protection from infectious disease that occurs when a large percentage of the population has become immune, or resistant, to an infection, whether through previous infection or through vaccination. Once a sufficient percentage of the population becomes immune, protection is afforded to those who are not immune because they are less likely to be exposed to individuals who carry the disease and are therefore contagious. For example, herd immunity created via vaccination contributed to the eventual eradication of smallpox in 1977
Coronavirus is highly contagious, spreading by touch, by air, through coughs and sneezes, and by contact with contaminated surfaces. If each person with Coronavirus infected three others, nearly two-thirds of the population would need to be immune to confer herd immunity. This virus is so new to us (we’ve only known about it for about six months) that scientists are not sure if prior infection confers immunity against future infection or, if so, how long such immunity might last.
While vaccines are under development in multiple labs around the world, widespread availability of a vaccine is at least six and possibly up to eighteen months away. In the absence of a vaccine, developing immunity to Coronavirus requires actually being infected with the virus. Current estimates indicate that 0.5-1.0 percent of Coronavirus infections are fatal, so in order to build herd immunity in the United States WITHOUT a vaccine, nearly 200 million people would need to be infected with Coronavirus and up to two million could die.
Many fewer Americans have died from Coronavirus infections than was predicted only six to eight weeks ago. Practicing social distancing, using masks, quarantining of confirmed cases and isolating patients exposed to Coronavirus have all helped to flatten the curve and slow the spread of infection. Contact tracing to locate persons exposed to confirmed cases is now being implemented. We need to continue practicing all of these measures, as scientists around the world work to produce effective vaccines that will provide herd immunity and save millions of lives.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/01/opinion/sunday/coronavirus-herd-immunity.html